Water crisis in Pakistan

Rashid Riaz..

Writer did his master in political science and now a days affiliated with academia 

 

Today, water is the most valuable commodity on earth as compared to other natural resources; while oil, for instance, could be replaced by other sources of energy, there is no substitute for water. God has blessed Pakistan with abandoned water resources, with water flowing down the Himalayas and Karakorum heights, from the world’s largest glaciers, a free and unique bounty of nature for this land of alluvial plains. As a result of this natural resource, today we have the marvelous and the largest irrigation system in world which irrigates over 16 million hectors of land out of 34 million hectors of cultivable land available.

 According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), “Pakistan is a largest user of water for agriculture in the world, except Europe and North America”. Globally, out of the total, nearly 70 percent of water is consumed for food production, 20% for industry and 10% for domestic use. While, in Pakistan the utilization of available water is carried out with 96% and 4% for agriculture cum hydropower and combined for domestic and industrial use, respectively. Basically, there are two major sources of water in Pakistan i.e. surface water and ground water.

In surface water there are three hydrologic units, Indus Basin River and Closed Basin Kharan Desert.  Pakistan has three major reservoirs, Mangla, Terbela and Chashma with more small reservoirs like Warsak, Baran dam hub, Khanpur, Tanda, Rawal, Simly, Bakht khan Hamal lake, Mancher lake, Kinjhar Lake and Chotiari Lake are also included as small storage. .

 

Name of Reservoir	Year of Construction	Gross  Storage Capacity (MAF)	Live Storage Capacity (MAF)	Reduction (%)
Tarbella	1976	11.62	9.68	24.6
Mangla	1967	5.882	5.41	13.2
Chashma	1972	0.870	0.717	39.3

Nowadays, Pakistan is facing severe shortage of water. There are two main reasons, one natural due to prolong drought---which is beyond the control of a man, and the other is due to the gross negligence in the development and miss-management in water resources. Out of 141.67 MAF, around 106 MAF is annually diverted to one of the largest but in-efficient irrigation system. The remaining, unused 36 MAF goes into the sea. Out of 106 MAF, diverted into an extensive irrigation net work 38 MAF is lost during the channeling and the field application before it reaches the crop root zone. In this way total loss become 50% of 141.67 MAF. Siltation of dams is not included in these facts and figures of water loss. With the passage of time siltation also contributes to water shortage.
Water plays a major role in our social and economical life.  Agriculture is our backbone and the water flowing in the channels to the crops is its blood line—and if there is no or less water then we must be prepared to face social and economic problems. Since agriculture has been remained a major source of shouldering the already crippled economy, it has a vital role to play particularly in terms of food security and employment of the ever-burgeoning population of the country. It contributes around 35% to the GNP and employs about 44% of labor force. It also contributes 65% of our export earnings. The adverse effects of water shortage on agriculture would have adverse effect on the prevailing level of poverty.

(a) Less water means less agricultural yields and to fulfill the food requirements of the nation, we will be dependent on other countries.

(b) Raising livestock is the main source of livelihood of rural areas. it is also an important economic activity, which contributes 9.7% of gdp, will be affected due to shortage of water.

(c) Orchards of Pakistan bring home a healthy amount of foreign exchange, which can be affected due to water shortage.

(d) Due to less production of main crops, wheat, cotton, sugar cane and rice, the Industries related to them will suffer adversely.

(e) Drought and more dependency on ground water for irrigation, the water table will go down, and this will because water constrains to the population.

(f) Less agricultural outputs will compel people to head towards urban areas for jobs, which will further increase the unemployment rate.

(g) The distribution of water is controlled from the center by IRSA (Indus river system authority) as per 1991 agreement between the provinces. Then the shortage of water will cause disputes between the provinces, which may cause harm to the national integrity. So this is a simmering issue in Pakistan, one that has stoked the fires of nationalism and increased the trust deficit between provinces. Water-related issues can also pit village against village, clan against clan and farmer against farmer.

Having suffered previously, it is appalling that governments still remain unconcerned about the water crisis. The biggest issue between Pakistan and India after the Kashmir is river water and India is expediting the construction work of dams and barrages on the remaining rivers of Pakistan.

It is said that future conflicts will be rooted in disputes over water. Take the case of Pakistan and India. Tensions related to water-sharing are nothing new in the subcontinent but they received fresh impetus with the construction of Baglihar Dam in Indian-held Kashmir.

Whenever floods and drought hit the country and its agriculture, there are strong voices for construction of big dams and reservoirs to store the floodwater which goes waste. Soon after, these voices die down.            While the fact remains that there is no escape from building big storages where water from floods could be preserved for multiple uses including irrigation. The scarcity of fresh water supplies to masses is being witnessed due to its poor management; wastage and lack of storage facility despite of the fact the country receive an average rainfall less than 240 mm a year. In the case of Pakistan, which had abundant water resources at the time of partition, mismanagement of water resources have succumbed the country to physical scarcity with the per capita availability falling at around the 1000 cubic meters per year mark

Although Pakistan is one of the most arid countries in the world yet it has the lowest per capita freshwater supplies in the region - less than half the global benchmark of 1000 cubic centimeters. While per capital freshwater supplies in China are stood at 2,700 cubic centimeters; 17,000 cubic centimeters in India and 3,300 cubic centimeters in Afghanistan. 

The water development strategy is largely based upon construction of new storage reservoirs where as the water management strategy will help in reducing the present losses so in this case, regarding to future planning the national water strategy must be based upon two essential elements covering
 

·   Water developments

·   Water management

The fact remains that there is no escape from building big storages where water from floods could be preserved for multiple uses including irrigation

At present, Pakistan’s water storage capacity is around 7pc of the total available water.

Pakistanis are facing unprecedented shortage of water due to the lowest recorded levels of water in the country’s dams, according to Pakistani Meteorological Department.

Agricultural system in Pakistan is based on old methods that are water wasting.  More worryingly, farmers have no incentive to shift from this inefficient irrigation method. The solution is to invest in micro-irrigation methods, such as drip and sprinklers. Although such methods require an expensive outlay of pipes and electricity to pump water, the costs are not entirely prohibitive: India and Nepal have successfully introduced low-cost drip technology on large-scale.

Due to lack of education and vocational training, irrigation itself is not practiced under scientific guidance in Pakistan. The government of Pakistan must also introduce a drip and sprinkler irrigation scheme through which the system could be installed at a low cost; however, any tangible impact is not yet visible.

Besides this India continues to construct hydro projects on Chenab and  Jhelum rivers, Pakistan is not taking up the Kalabagh Dam project despite the fact that it was agreed and approved more than 60 years ago; what to talk  about the importance of small dams (mill dams)  and the acute shortage of water faced by the country, in the wake of recurrent floods and climate change. 

A new agreement should be developed that must recognize the internationally accepted lower riparian rights and ensure sufficient water availability in the lower basin and the ecological balance of the River Indus and the Indus delta. International monitoring and dispute arbitration should be included within the agreement to resolve disputes within the gambit of international laws

If we control these water losses alone there will be a minimum shortage of water. Nonetheless there are six very important water projects available in Pakistan, including Gomal Zam Dam with 1.14 million acre feet capacity, Mirani Dam with 0.3 million acre feet capacity, rising up of Mangla Dam has 3.0 million acre feet capacity, Spartha Dam with 0.2 million acre feet capacity, Bhasha Dam with 5.70 million acre feet and Sehwan Barrage with 0.6 million acre feet capacities. Combine potential of these projects is 10.5 million acre feet of water. 

Many water experts and institutions such as the World Bank and US Senate foreign relations committee have, in recent past, been expressing concern over water shortages and warning Pakistan about a major water crisis in the next 10-40 years if no appropriate remedial measures were taken. Pakistan is lingering just above the water scarcity limit of 1,000 cubic meters per capita and the next few decades can see this figure falling by half. A global water shortage ‘bomb’ is ticking away – and slowly, it’s making its way to Pakistan. Such a calamity would cause as much damage as a historic

From Hemu to Modi

Ali Anwar....

The writer has done M.Phil. in Government and Public Policy from National Defence University Islamabad.He has been providing Tax consultancy (e-filing of returns, compliance of notices and application for refund and reduction) since 2012.

 Hemu known as Hemu Vikramaditya or Hemchandra Vikramaditya was a Hindu chief of army and chief minister to Adil Shah Suri. He moved in Suri Dynasty by close interaction and inclusion in advisory matters. Whilst, Humayun was at multiple wars with Sher Shah Suri and his rebel brother Kamran Mirza. In brief, Sher Shah routed out Hamayum to Kabul and Hamayum routed out Kamran to Punjab. During those years, he was appointed for various important task. In 1550, Hemu was appointed along high official at Rohtas Fort near Jhelum city today. Afterwards, in 1552, Kamran went to the court of Islam Shah and he handed over him to Humayum. Hemu also accompanied Kamran. Afterwards, he mixed up and become the prime minister cum chief of army staff.Hemu took part in numerous battles and also won many wars under the Sur Dynasty during the reign of successors Islam Shah Suri and Adil Shah Suri. Akbar was just thirteen years old at the time of death of Humayun and Sur Dynasty was already divided into four parts due to revolt of Ibrahim Shah Suri in 1555. Hemu sought to take advantage of the situation and attacked both Sur and Mughal forces. He defeated armies and gained control of Etawah, Kalpi and Agra provinces (today’s Bihar and Uttar Pradesh). Hemu recruited more Hindus and defeated the Mughal army in the Battle of Delhi . His antagonism forced him to wage war. Finally, he met the Mughal Forces at historical Panipat. It was Second Battle of Panipat 1556. Shah Ali Quli Khan dug a trench to protect his army. Unfortunately, Hemu's War elephants crossed the trench. A Mughal archer shot the Hemu rendering him unconscious. He was captured by isolating his elephant.  Despite of larger numbers, Hemu defeated in the battle. Hemu was beheaded, and his skull and torso were hanged in Kabul and Delhi.

Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) praised him as Last Hindu Emperor of India at National Museum in October last years. RSS is projecting him as a great Hindu warrior who fought against the Muslims. He cannot be called as emperor because he never ruled and has no reign. Ridiculously, if he was emperor then all invaders should be emperor. Now a days Narendra Modi is trying to follow him. There were certain misconceptions along which Hemu died and Modi still has. India has larger army than Pakistan but larger means nothing. In all of the battles of Panipat, smaller armies won. Smaller and larger doesn’t decide the victory of war. Winning at one front doesn’t mean to win at all fronts. Nobody knows the results of war until it has not happened. Such kind of leaders not only invite bad fate them but their armies and masses also face dire consequences. Adolf Hitler is the most recent example of last century from which should not forgotten and lesson can be learned. RSS’s strategy to rejuvenate Hindu warriors to entice war on Pakistan can be observed by the most recent provocations. These provocations may result different consequences because both of the countries are nuclear powers.  Both, India and Pakistan can learn lessons from history and there are other ways. The Britain and French remained at Seven Years Wars from 1756-1763. However, they found a better way and working for the well-being of their citizens. All the nations have their great warriors. As a matter of fact, the Muslims have more numerous great warriors than many others over the time. Nonetheless, the epochs of warriors are over, in this modern era countries look forward for socio-economic development. Going back to 16^th century seems insane which is not feasible for any country of the whole world.      

War of 1965: From confusion to crux

Kashif Zaheer Kamboh

(Writer did his MPhil in Public Polices from NDU, Islamabad, Pakistan and currently working as policy analyst in a Islamabad based Think Tank)

Indians are confused nation in perspective of their narratives, foreign policies and now victories in wars. Previously this was acclaimed by Indian ministry of defence that, war of 1965 ended without any triumph or defeat. But now Indian government under the controversial leadership of Modi decided to celebrate 50^th anniversary of 1965 war. Now new strategy is to launch new controversies and myths in order to portray an uphold victory. Its overwhelming narrative that war of September 1965 was ignited with Operation Giblator. This is a blunder with history and betray with contemporary and coming generations. Pakistani writers themselves put the onus of starting 1965 war on Bhutto, unmindful of the fact that they are branding their own country as the aggressor. However, the matter of the fact is, that the 1965 Indo-Pakistan war did not begin with the sending of infiltrators into Kashmir. It began much earlier when India had occupied Kargil in 16-17 May 1965. Operation Gibraltar was launched three months after that on 5 August 1965.

Operation Gibraltor was launched in a disputed territory to reply Indian invasion on Kargil hills but Indian Air Force waved a full-fledged war by attacking passenger train moving to Lahore on 6^th September. Indians were having a total of 700,000 infantry combating with country (Pakistan) 10 times smaller in geography with an army of 260,000.  Indians attacked from Lahore side and Pakistan unleashed counter-offensive from Khem Karan. They opened different icons of war on Pakistani border. GandaSingh Border Kasur, Chawinda Sialkot, Sindh and Kashmir to engage Pakistani military. Plan was very dangerous to cut Lahore by rapidly moving from Sialkot to G.T Road Gujranwala towards Rawalpindi. Indian generals applauded to celebrate their morning lunch at Lahore Gymkhana which remained a dream. World’s largest after World War II invasion of tanks was unleashed at Chawinda. Indians faced a grinding halt at Chawinda border by losing 120 tanks. More than 100,000 Indian troops moved aggressively towards Pakistan administered Kashmir.

Air force of both countries especially PAF played a vital force and marked history with swinging events. Indian were having 466 air crafts whereas Pakistan was combating 203 air crafts. According to Mr. Nur Khhan (Air vice Marshall) PAF lost 19 aircraft by destroying 108 Indian planes. MM Alam bench marked history by hitting five Indian air crafts less than a minute. Kenneth Werrell praised the Pakistan Air Force "did well in the conflict and probably had the edge. Pakistan Air force’s triumph was acclaimed by all the international forces and open observers.

Naval operations played a decisive role in blue waters. Pakistan Navy launched operation Dwarkha under the command of highly intelligent commodore S.M. Anwar. PNS Ghazi bombarded and ceased movement of Indian Navy at the Bombay. Air craft carriers, and other water based weapons were forced to stay on stand still position by the PNS. So this was an open victory in blue waters which was later questioned in Lok Sabha (Indian Parliament).

Indian plan to capture Lahore was a failed plan and ultimately movement was ceased till BRB defence canal. Indian Infantory attacked with tanks from Chawinda but went unable to isolate Lahore from rest of country. Resultantly lost field of Chawinda and faced sever loss of 110 tanks. Indian Air force was badly defeated by Pakistan Air force. Least but not last performance of Indian Navy can be better described in discussions of Lok Sabha. 

Why Pakistan does have a right to celebrate victory because they captured a large portion of India in Khem Karan, ceased their movement at Chawinda and Kasur. 500 Indian soldiers were imprisoned along with 15 tanks only at Chamb sector. Another 30 were arrested by Col Nasser Babar at Bhimbar Sctor when he mistakenly landed in said area. Indian navy was tamed by single PNS Ghazi and Indian Air force got a clear defeat in open airs. Pakistan, a country geographically 10 times smaller combated with an aggressor country which was having edge on military, diplomacy, and icons of international relations. 

Where is the Indian victory which they are celebrating??? When your plans are not met, your strategies are unable to produce fruit and objectives are collapsed then why you are confused???? Yes they can celebrate one thing that they were aggressors and psychologically they proved themselves as invaded innocents.